29 June – Helensburgh

Discussion Evening 2 – Nuclear Risks for Future Generations

Date: Sunday, 29 June 2025
Time: 7:00 PM – 9:00 PM
Venue: The Commodore, Helensburgh, G84 8ES, United Kingdom

Speakers

To be determined (TBD)

Discussion Overview

The possession of nuclear weapons dramatically increases the dangers posed by anthropogenic risks, giving humanity the means to bring about its own extinction for the first time in history. Research on existential risks to humanity assumes a relatively high probability of large-scale use of nuclear weapons, within the lifetime of a child born today. Humanity cannot afford to rely on nuclear deterrence; the current approach to nuclear weapons is not sustainable.

But what would the consequences of nuclear warfare even look like? Many researchers have tried to answer this question. Some scholars estimate that 67% of the global population would be killed within two years of a nuclear war between NATO and Russia, with many people perishing from the cascading effects of nuclear winter and food scarcity. Other estimates paint an even more bleak picture. The potential suffering and deaths caused by such an event raise an urgent moral obligation to avoid this scenario. This scenario could also bring us scarily close to the realisation of an ‘existential risk’, defined in the IGJR 2022 as ‘risks that lead to a breakdown of human-made systems to an extent that the survivors can barely fulfil their basic needs’. However, it is not only full-scale warfare that should concern us. The detonation of a singular relatively ‘low yield’ 12-kiloton nuclear bomb would still have devastating consequences if dropped in an urban area. In addition to the estimated 60,000 people who would be killed by the direct consequences of such a detonation, this would cause long-lasting impacts on health, health-care systems, transport, and agriculture.

Exploring our own vulnerability to nuclear weapons can be approached through a number of disciplines including moral philosophy, international relations, atmospheric science, risk theory, and history. This second discussion evening will take an interdisciplinary approach, seeking to strengthen the moral and political positions for disarmament.